Natural gas prices and temperature are correlated, but there are other factors here:

  • In the long term, the intrayear shape of gas prices is a function of temperature, but that curve is usually non tradable, so it's just theoretical at most.
  • In the medium/short term, gas prices (as any other prices) are a function of supply and demand. Demand is often very correlated with temperature (depending on the country and the temperature range), but other factors (geopolitics, lng supply, fx rates, etc) can affect both supply and demand.